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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.